Political Analysis

Brexit remains the key political topic which is set to dictate the value of the pound in the FX markets. The U.K. is due to leave the EU on March 29 and both sides have said they are aiming for a deal in October. Negotiators need to leave enough time for the U.K. and European parliaments to debate and ratify the final terms of the divorce. 


When MPs return from their summer recess in september, Britain's departure from the EU will be fast approaching. Here are the key dates and parliamentary battles on the road to Brexit.




September 20th 2018: - EU leaders are expected to discuss Brexit, although a full summit has been

October 17 - 18th 2018:  - EU summit. This has been seen as a deadline for an agreement setting out the terms of UK-EU "divorce" - the so-called withdrawal agreement - to allow enough time for the UK Parliament and the European Parliament to ratify it. A political declaration on the future relationship between the UK and the EU is also expected at this point

November: The EU has suggested this month is the latest a deal could be finalised. There is speculation that an emergency EU summit on Brexit might be held ruled int his out month, if a withdrawal agreement and a declaration on the future relationship are not reached in October
If a deal has been agreed, MPs will be asked to approve it

13-14 December - EU summit. If a deal has not been done by October, this is the fallback option if the two sides still want to reach an agreement



Ratification of the withdrawal agreement by the UK Parliament and the European Parliament.


21 January - If the government has not presented its withdrawal agreement by this date, powers for MPs to influence ministers' next steps will kick in.

21-22 March - The final summit that the UK is expected to attend as a member of the EU

Before 29 March - Parliament will have to pass the European Union (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill to implement the withdrawal agreement, assuming it was approved by Parliament beforehand.

29 March, at 2300 GMT - The UK leaves the EU. A special summit of the 27 other EU countries soon after the UK's expected, but has not yet been scheduled

23-26 May Elections for the European Parliament in 27 EU countries (the UK will no longer be represented in the parliament)



31 December - If all goes to plan, this will be the last date of the transition period




The possibility of a hard Brexit alongside the in-house fighting within the British government is making investors nervous about the UK crashing out of the EU without a deal of trade.