Reserve Bank Of Australia Commentary

 

6th August 2018

 

RBA keeps Cash Rate Target unchanged at a record low of 1.50% as expected

Lowe Says:
- Judged steady policy was consistent with growth and inflation targets.
- Low rates supporting the economy.
- Wage growth remains subdued and likely to continue for a while.
- Headline CPI to be lower than expected this year.
- GDP growth to average a bit higher than 3.0% this year and next.

 

August 7th 2018

 

RBA Governor Lowe says board sees no strong case for near-term change in rates and that next move is likely to be higher if economy evolves as expected

Says:
- Natural for rates to eventually move back to more normal levels.

 

RBA Governor Lowe says has not found arguments for an increase in rates convincing

 

August 9th 2018

 

RBA Statement on Monetary Policy states board sees no strong case for a change in rates in the near-term

Says:
- Higher rates are likely to be appropriate at some time if the economy evolves as forecast.

Forecasts
- RBA maintained December 2018 GDP growth forecast at 3.25
%, but trimmed December 2018 core CPI forecast to 1.75% from 2.00%.

 

August 17th 2018

 

RBA Governor Lowe says expect the next move in rates to be a hike, but adds board's view that central bank will hold steady for a while yet

Says:
- Likely to make further gradual progress on inflation and unemployment.
-
Some time before reaching full employment.
- Prepared to maintain current policy stance until employment and inflation benchmarks are more clearly in sight.
- No strong case for near-term interest rate change.

says further weakening in AUD would be helpful

says there is a low probability of the central bank cutting rates barring a major crisis in China
 

Source: Newswires

 

RBA's Ellis says if things turn out broadly as we expect, it is more likely that the next move in the cash rate will be up than down

 

  • That progress on getting unemployment down and inflation up is likely to be only gradual, however. So any increase is still likely to be some time away. 

 

Source: RBA

 

August 22nd 2018

 

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Debelle says expects downward pressure on inflation to eventually subside and would like to be more confident inflation will be sustained at 2% target, adds current accommodative policy (Low rates at 1.5%)  will support this outcome.

 

Source: RBA

 

RBA Deputy Governor Debelle says expects downward pressure on inflation to eventually subside and would like to be more confident inflation will be sustained at target, adds current accommodative policy will support this outcome

Says:
- Sees inflation around 2.25% during 
the next couple of years.

 

August 23rd 2018

 

 

RBC says it pushes back RBA rate hike to Q4 2019 and another hike in Q1 2020, while it then expects rates to be kept unchanged for sometime

 

Source: Newswires

 

September 1st 2018

 

RBA Governor Lowe states that a rate move 'still seems some way off' but the next move is likely to be up, not down.

Source: Newswires